The Spread of Rabies Among Dogs in Pranburi District, Thailand: A Metapopulation Modeling Approach.

Abstract

Rabies, a deadly zoonotic disease, is causing serious public health problems worldwide. Dogs are considered the main reservoir for rabies infection in humans. A better understanding of the dissemination of rabies in the dog population is crucial. The present study, therefore, aimed to explore the subpopulation of dogs roaming around rabies-outbreak areas and the model of its possible spread. We used a Cross-K function to investigate the spatial clustering between the locations of dog rabies cases and the feeding points of a stray dog feeder. We then observed the social interaction of dogs in a community using a metapopulation analysis and further simulated the possible spread of rabies within this population. We found that the reported rabies cases were spatially clustered with the routes of the dog feeder. Therefore, more sustainable stray dog management is required. Based on our community dog observations, we found 20 groups comprising 222 dogs with an average of 11 dogs per group. In our infectious model, we suggested that 47.7% of dogs are likely to be infected in a year if no interventions are implemented. Therefore, the veterinary authorities should rigorously strengthen their rabies prevention and control strategies to protect both animal and human health.