Spatial statistical modeling of disease outbreaks with particular reference to the UK foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic of 2001.

Abstract

In this paper we examine issues relating to the analysis of spatially-referenced disease data. Initially, we discuss the use of exploratory statistical tools such as density estimation and nonparametric regression. We then consider the need for descriptive epidemic models in space, time, and space-time models for epidemic dynamics. Implicitly space-time must be considered in any analysis of the spatial structure of epidemics. The use of Bayesian models for disease spread is discussed and applied to the recent foot and mouth outbreak in the UK.