Spatial heterogeneity, social structure and disease dynamics of animal populations.

Abstract

Social groupings, population dynamics and population movements of animals all give rise to spatio-temporal variations in population levels. These variations may be of crucial importance when considering the spread of infectious diseases since infection levels do not increase unless there is a sufficient pool of susceptible individuals. This paper explores the impact of social groupings on the potential for an endemic disease to develop in a spatially explicit model system. Analysis of the model demonstrates that the explicit inclusion of space allows asymmetry between groups to arise when this was not possible in the equivalent spatially homogeneous system. Moreover, differences in movement behaviours for susceptible and infected individuals gives rise to different spatial profiles for the populations. These profiles were not observed in previous work on an epidemic system. The results are discussed in an ecological context with reference to furious and dumb strains of infectious diseases.