Modeling the outbreak and control of African swine fever virus in large-scale pig farms.

Abstract

African swine fever virus (ASFV) leads to a highly contagious, lethal and economically devastating disease among pigs. Since no effective treatment for the disease, it is crucial to investigate its transmission mechanism and control strategies in large-scale pig farms. We first established a toy model to explore ASFV spread in one pig unit. Then a switching patch model was developed to capture its spread from one initial epidemic pig house consecutively to others, even the whole farm. Assessing innocent culling rates of three large-scale epidemic pig farms in Jiangsu Province showed that it is unnecessary to slaughter all pigs in the farms compulsively. Then we explored how the disinfection and fixation of employees impact ASFV spread in the farms. To control ASFV, we can block or slow down its spreading by improving the efficiency of disinfection and decreasing employee population to some extend. We can also shrink potential areas to be infected by properly improving the matching refinement degree among employees and houses. Some essential requirements for large-scale pig farms are presented to reduce their ASFV spreading risk, which can be helpful for animal health authorities in establishing regulation to standardize large-scale pig farms.