Description of recent foot and mouth disease outbreaks in nonendemic areas: exploring the relationship between early detection and epidemic size.

Abstract

The objective of this investigation was to describe the detection of foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in nonendemic areas, and to consider how events early in an epidemic influence the epidemic's course. We identified 24 epidemics that occurred between 1992 and 2003 in areas officially considered free of FMD. We obtained information about these epidemics from many sources, including the scientific literature, the grey (non peer-reviewed) literature, and individuals involved with the outbreaks. While most of the epidemics consisted of fewer than 150 infected premises, there were 4 extremely large epidemics, each consisting of more than 2000 infected premises. There was no direct relationship between the time to detection and either the total number of infected premises or the number of animals killed for disease control purposes. We believe that the movement of infected animals through markets was the most critical factor that contributed to the unusual magnitude of the very large epidemics.